The San Jose Sharks have a dilemma. A fortunate dilemma, but a dilemma nonetheless.
Jumping from nine to two in the lottery puts the Sharks in a position they likely didn’t expect to find themselves in after missing the playoffs by only four points. San Jose has one of, if not the deepest group of young forwards in the league, so choosing a defenseman feels like the obvious choice.
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Defensemen Chase Reid, Carson Carels, and Keaton Verhoeff are all projected towards the top of the draft, and all three have legitimate top-pairing potential. Yet, none possess the game-breaking talent that Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg offers, leaving general manager Mike Grier in a bind.
The Sharks have had eight picks in the previous five first rounds, selecting six forwards, one defenseman and one goalie. Come draft night, do the Sharks look to fill the organizational hole at defense, or do they draft the best player available in Stenberg?
The case for Stenberg
Stenberg is arguably the best Swedish prospect of the century, recording the second-best draft-year points-per-game of any Swedish Hockey League player. His 33 points in 43 games sit only behind Hall of Fame winger Daniel Sedin.
Adding Stenberg’s offensive creation to a core of Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, Michael Misa, and William Eklund is certainly a tantalizing prospect for San Jose. While Reid, Verhoeff, and Carels would all be excellent additions for the team’s future, all three have glaring holes in their games that lower their floor as a prospect.
For Reid, the decision-making hasn’t quite caught up to the high-end speed of his game. Verhoeff’s skating makes it hard to project him as an elite top-four defenseman. The last of the bunch, Carels, lacks the puck-moving under pressure that previous top-10 defensive prospects possessed.
A similar predicament in recent years came at the 2024 draft, when the Chicago Blackhawks opted to take defenseman Artyom Levshunov over forward Ivan Demidov. Demidov was regarded as the second-best player in the class behind Celebrini, but Chicago wanted to surround Connor Bedard with a strong defensive core.
Two years into their careers, Demidov has solidified himself as an elite offensive presence, and Chicago is still in search of a running mate alongside Bedard.
This isn’t to write off Levshunov, as he can still be a great puck-moving No. 2 defenseman, but general manager Kyle Davidson would likely have gone best player available if he had a chance to take the pick again.
Stenberg’s game is too translatable, too dynamic and too well-rounded to pass on for just the possibility of an elite defenseman. The Sharks likely won’t be picking towards the top of the draft again any time soon, so how can they expect to obtain a top-end defenseman?
The blueprint of current contenders
The Stanley Cup-winning Carolina Hurricanes drafted only two of their defensemen, and only one defenseman on the roster was selected in the first round. Kaedan Korczak was the only defenseman selected by the Vegas Golden Knights to feature in the Stanley Cup Final.
What this signals to active managers is that a strong defensive core can be built from outside the draft. While drafting in the lottery certainly helps, it isn’t the only way to acquire high-end blue-liners.
San Jose’s path to building a competent defense
Yesterday’s acquisition of Michael Kesselring was an important step toward building a playoff-level defense, but there’s still work to be done for Grier and the Sharks. This year’s free agency is headlined by late-bloomer Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Darren Raddysh, although his age isn’t quite in line with San Jose’s timeline.
More likely, the Sharks will have to build the blue line via trade. The pipeline features a boatload of forward prospects waiting to crack the NHL, just likely not on the Sharks.
Quentin Musty and Filip Bystedt are two names the Sharks could look to package in a deal for a defenseman. Even roster players Collin Graf and William Eklund have been mentioned as possible trade bait, but those would need to be for a more clearly established NHLer.
Carolina’s dominant 16-3 Stanley Cup run dispelled the myth that a defense can only be built through the draft, but only time will tell if that sentiment echoes all the way to the front office of San Jose.
The case for a defenseman
San Jose has selected a forward with six of their last eight first-round picks, and some would argue that selecting another only makes future roster construction more difficult. Where does a Graf fit in the lineup, or more importantly, where do you slot newly-extended Kiefer Sherwood?
Does a pick like this force you to move an Eklund, possibly damaging the chemistry of the team?
After taking Celebrini and Misa in the last two drafts, does San Jose look at a team like Edmonton as a cautionary tale of an offensive dynamo with no real defensive presence?
These are all valid concerns, but ignore the reality of business in the NHL. The job of the scouting staff is to assess the best player available. Stenberg fits the bill.
Mike Grier has time to answer those questions, even if difficult decisions have to be made along the way. Stanley Cups are won with top-end skill, and the San Jose Sharks have the opportunity to insulate generational talent, Celebrini, with even more top-end skill.
