The 2026 NBA Playoffs have been thrilling through the first handful of first-round games. While many teams are caught up in closer series’, two Western Conference teams appear to be on a collision course for the Conference Finals.
Mark J. Rebilas — IMAGN IMAGES
The first sweep of this postseason belongs to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who took care of the Phoenix Suns in four games. Despite injury woes hampering key pieces like Jalen Williams, the Thunder have played their championship-caliber basketball all the same.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 33.8 points, 8.0 assists and 3.8 rebounds in the four victories over the Suns, shooting a blistering 55.1% from the floor.
If he maintains this level of play while Chet Holmgren and OKC’s depth continues to show up, they look like huge favorites to reach the Conference Finals.
The Los Angeles Lakers are on the verge of defeating the Houston Rockets and advancing into a second-round matchup with the Thunder.
Both Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic have missed the start of the playoffs due to injury, although Reaves is optimistic about a possible Game 5 return against the Rockets on Wednesday. Regardless, OKC remains the heavy favorite to beat the Lakers.
The Thunder’s depth and size spell a nightmare combination for a Lakers squad that struggles in both of those areas. As the reigning champs with the league’s best record, the Thunder will likely win this series and advance to the WCF.
Daniel Dunn — IMAGN IMAGES
When they do so, they’ll most likely be facing the team that’s been their Achilles heel this season, the San Antonio Spurs.
Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs to a second-place finish in the West while becoming the league’s youngest-ever and first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year.
He helped anchor the Spurs as a top five defense in the league, while terrorizing opposing teams on offense.
While finishing with a 62-20 record, the Spurs had OKC’s number this season. San Antonio won four of their five head-to-head matchups, even with Wembanyama on a minutes restriction for several of the victories.
The Spurs are currently up 3-1 on the Portland Trail Blazers and are expected to advance in the next game or two. If they do, they’ll be matched up against the winner of the first-round battle between the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Minnesota is up 3-2 in the series, but they’re without Anthony Edwards, who went down with a bone bruise in Game 4. If they manage to close out the series, San Antonio will be heavily favored to send them home.
Without their main offensive engine, they may not have enough firepower to overcome the Spurs.
On the other hand, the Nuggets could still pull off the 3-1 comeback and beat Minnesota. In that case, the Spurs would still be favored to beat the Nuggets and advance to the WCF, but it could be a tougher matchup.
It would come down to the individual matchup between Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic. If Wembanyama can disrupt Jokic’s playmaking brilliance, San Antonio’s chances would be very strong.
This would inevitably pit the Spurs against the Thunder in a battle for a spot in the Finals.
Despite Wembanyama’s insane impact on both ends, it will be very difficult to beat a team like the Thunder in a seven-game series.
OKC’s play-style and next-level chemistry made them the reigning champions, but the Spurs proved on four occasions that they can be beaten. If the Thunder are still without Williams, the Spurs’ chances increase even further.
Ultimately, it feels like these two teams are headed for a matchup and it could be one that’s nearly impossible to predict.
James Parker is a sports writer for Ball Exclusives, follow him on X @TheJames_Parker
