The Golden State Warriors punched their ticket to the playoffs on Tuesday with a play-in win over the Memphis Grizzlies. They’re now set to play against an old Western Conference foe, the Houston Rockets. The Rockets last played the Warriors in the postseason during the James Harden era and both rosters have seen massive changes since then.
The Warriors are a squad led by experienced veterans vying for late-career success, facing off against a gritty Rockets team that is young and fast. Let’s take a look at what might transpire.
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The Headline
In a playoff series that features two offensive juggernauts, the biggest factor in the end could be the defensive performance from both teams. Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler spent the last portion of the season as an elite defensive duo that terrorized NBA offenses.
With far more playoff experience and basketball wisdom, the Warriors may turn the series into a chess match.
The Rockets had a ridiculous overall shot differential this season, meaning they attempted far more shots on average than their opponents, in part to a strong defensive unit. Additionally, the Warriors don’t have a lot of size to throw at Steven Adams, who has quietly become one of the greatest offensive rebounders of all time.
The Warriors may be the older team, but Houston’s young roster might be more desperate.
The Matchup
The most intriguing individual matchup of the series is Stephen Curry and Amen Thompson. Obviously, Curry is the better choice on offense, but Thompson is an All-Defense level defender and is as capable as any player in the world of containing Curry’s offensive heroics.
The Rockets’ defense is ranked in the top five and Thompson’s incredible athletic ability combined with good defensive discipline is part of the reason why.
Thompson’s offensive skillset is still developing but the Rockets will need him to play lockdown defense, not lead the team in scoring.
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The X-Factor
We’ve already mentioned his impact defensively, but Jimmy Butler could be the X-factor in this series if he’s consistent on offense. He’s already proven to be a late-game cheat code for the Warriors, making more free throws than field goals since arriving earlier this season.
He’s previously been nicknamed “Playoff Jimmy” and became infamous for playing with a new level on intensity in the postseason. He led the Miami Heat to the NBA Finals in 2020 with arguably a weaker roster than the current Warriors squad.
They may not need 30 points per night from Butler, but if Thompson is effectively guarding Curry, he could be the Warriors’ answer.
The NBA Playoffs are always intense and the Warriors have a stronger offense that’s built to be consistent in the postseason, which is why the Warriors should be seen as slight favorites, but don’t count out the young Rockets.
James Parker is an NBA writer for Ball Exclusives, follow him on X @TheJames_Parker
