Tarik Skubal entered free agency Monday at 5 p.m. ET, with the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets widely viewed as his top suitors ahead of a projected $300 million-plus contract.
Skubal is considered the best player available in the 2026–27 MLB free agent class. Multiple reporters expect him to sign before the December 1 collective bargaining agreement lockout. His deal is anticipated to surpass Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s contract and set a new record for a starting pitcher — potentially reaching $400 million over six or seven years.
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The Chicago Cubs want Skubal but are skeptical they can match the financial commitments required. The San Diego Padres, needing a rotation anchor after losing Michael King and Nick Pivetta to free agency, view Skubal as an ideal solution.
Skubal spent 2½ months with the Dodgers in 2026 and reportedly embraced their culture, clubhouse leadership, and organizational resources. He developed a close relationship with Blake Snell. However, Alden Gonzalez reported that price remains the deciding factor — and it is unclear whether the Dodgers will match Steve Cohen’s Mets or other bidders amid uncertainty about a potential salary cap.
Other starting pitchers expected to sign before the lockout include Michael King, Clay Holmes, Nick Martinez, and Tyler Mahle. Freddy Peralta and King — both traded midseason — performed well in the postseason and cannot receive qualifying offers, increasing their appeal. Seiya Suzuki carries significant leverage as a right-handed power bat in a thin offensive market.
Top trade candidates include Tampa Bay Rays ace Drew Rasmussen, whose $20 million salary would push the Rays above their 2026 payroll level without offsetting moves. The Houston Astros face a decision on shortstop Jeremy Peña one year before his free agency. The Los Angeles Angels must address roster gaps after trading Jose Soriano; Reid Detmers and Zach Neto remain under team control. The Milwaukee Brewers will listen on closer Trevor Megill, though William Contreras is not available.
The impending lockout is expected to trigger a November spending surge similar to 2021, when $1.9 billion in free agent deals were signed in the final days before the CBA expired. This class is considered weaker outside Skubal, Japanese prospects Teruaki Sato, Kaima Taira, and Hiromi Itoh — whose posting and signings will dominate early offseason talk.
The Dodgers plan to pursue Skubal and restock their bullpen, where Alex Vesia and Evan Phillips are free agents. Their entire starting lineup is under contract. Teoscar Hernandez is identified as the most obvious trade candidate among position players due to defensive decline and Shohei Ohtani’s presence at DH.
The Yankees must address their back-end bullpen, third base, center field, and second base. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trent Grisham are expected to depart. David Bednar is a free agent closer. Internal options exist, but the front office views the team as a contender needing only modest upgrades.
The Mets aim to return to the playoffs after missing them in consecutive seasons. Signing Skubal is seen as foundational. They also require bullpen help, another starter, and two productive bats to compete with the Braves, Phillies, Marlins, and Nationals.
The Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, and Padres — backed by new ownership capital — are viewed as teams most likely to make impactful moves before the lockout. The Angels are expected to become active after the lockout. Industry estimates suggest 12 to 18 teams will largely sit out November unless front offices successfully lobby for increased payroll flexibility.
Photo: Sewageboy / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
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