In the span of a month, the Anaheim Ducks have fallen from grace in the eyes of the hockey world. After an impressive playoff run showcasing their abundance of young talent, the Ducks have had arguably the worst offseason in the NHL.
The defense — which already allowed the fourth-most goals in the league — took a massive hit after the departure of John Carlson, Jacob Trouba, Radko Gudas and Olen Zellweger. But the most damaging move was the offer sheet to Leo Carlsson by the Philadelphia Flyers, and his subsequent five-year, $18 million extension — a deal that instantly mortgages the team’s cap space.
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But how did general manager Pat Verbeek manage to blow up one of the more promising futures in the sport?
The art of extending young stars
Every rebuild enters a critical point where the team must transition its young talent from entry-level contracts to long-term extensions. As the Ducks have entered that stage, Verbeek has decided to play hardball with just about every budding talent, including Carlsson.
Looking back to last season even, Verbeek allowed negotiations with Mason McTavish to extend past the opening week of training camp — a critical point of development for young talent. Verbeek employed the same tactics when negotiating with Trevor Zegras‘ team, causing the now-Philadelphia Flyer to miss a month of training camp.
Despite neither remaining on the Ducks, many viewed this as a long-term positive if it chipped away at the average annual values of the deals — but the same can’t be said with established young stars such as Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier.
What this means for the Ducks
Instead of extending Carlsson last summer after a strong sophomore campaign, Verbeek pushed negotiation talks back a year, allowing his market value to skyrocket further after a breakout season. Teams around the league were well aware of the crunch the Ducks were in, as it is reported four teams sent an offer sheet to the 21-year-old.
According to multiple sources, Carlsson’s camp was willing to sign an eight-year, $12.5 million extension. Thanks to Verbeek’s stubborn tactics, Carlsson is now the highest-paid player in NHL history by AAV at $18 million.
While Carlsson is a legitimate franchise center, it will be nearly impossible for him to live up to the price tag. Now, with Gauthier needing an extension, the market has shifted for rising talent.
After the record-breaking deal, Gauthier is rumored to be asking for $15 million on a long-term extension with the Ducks, while the Ducks sit at a projected $9.07 million in cap space. There are a few costly contracts the Ducks could offload to make room for Gauthier, but the precedent for future contracts would be set in Anaheim as players like Beckett Sennecke near eligibility for extension.
Blue line woes
With Gauthier’s extension on the horizon, the Ducks have little flexibility to improve the rest of their roster, a reality that becomes all the more concerning when looking at the back end. The Ducks’ projected defensive core consists of Jackson LaCombe, Drew Helleson, Pavel Mintyukov, Nick Jensen, Tyson Hinds and Ian Moore.
The Ducks recorded the sixth-worst expected goals against in the league last year, and lost their second, third and fifth defensemen based on time on ice per game.
Although according to Verbeek, the defense isn’t an area of concern for the Ducks.
“I’m very happy. When I look at our defense, most of them played in the playoffs last year and got good experience there,” Verbeek said.
While the Ducks got substantially weaker on the back end, their divisional rival in the San Jose Sharks bolstered their defensive core with the additions of Trouba, Darnell Nurse and Michael Kesselring.
What can we expect from the Ducks next year?
The Pacific Division was bad last season — historically bad. It’s certainly possible the Ducks outperform the Sharks and Los Angeles Kings for the final divisional playoff spot, but the defensive depth suggests that a step back is more likely.
With that being said, next season doesn’t determine the success of the Ducks’ rebuild and Verbeek’s tenure. Progression isn’t linear, and their performance over the next five to ten years carries much more weight than one season — but the path to long-term success is murky after Verbeek’s negotiation tactics have damaged their cap flexibility.
